Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Traders Talk: Today's Trades are AMSC and PCLN [+Trade Video]

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Futures vs FV: SP 35.28; DJ +293.62; NASDAQ +82.68

So much for a post-Labor Day selloff. After falling Friday US stock futures are following a stronger Europe (but not a stronger Asia) to the upside.

Volatility clearly remains the feature characteristic of this market with stocks either gapping higher or gapping lower day to day with no in between.

Today's pin the tail on the reason for the rally: extremely weak Chinese import data.

Chinese imports: -13.8% versus -8.2% prior year/year
Exports: -5.5% year/year vs -8.4%

China intervened heavily in its markets, equity and currency, and Shanghai closed positive while Hong Kong, Japan and other Asian markets closed lower.

The usual mantra that the bad news requires more China stimulus is cited as the cause of the rise, but frankly China is doing just about all it can to prevent total collapse. Stimulus? Doesn't really matter right now for China.

Small business confidence, August: 95.9 vs 95.4.

Earnings: MCHP raises guidance for TL and BL, sparking enthusiasm in the chip sector that is trying to put in some bottoming patterns.

Bonds: 2.16% vs 2.13%

EUR/USD: 1.1160 vs 1.1148. Dollar off to start the 'rest of the year'.

USD/JPY: 120.05 vs 119.04. Up versus yen

Oil: 47.56, -0.49

Gold: 1122.20, +0.80

Here we go again, right? Gap lower one day, gap higher the next. The trend has been lower, but the strong open to start the new week and the 'summer is over' part of the year raises hope that perhaps last Tuesday was the low, the successful test. The first problem with these gap starts is getting decent entries if you want to play the move.

The second problem is how they hold, not just intraday but the next day. We will have to see how the move holds once all other markets close. That has been the market's Achilles heel, when the counter moves tend to start. Then there is the overall trend lower; will this be a good bottom at the last Tuesday low (where the Friday market closed with that gap lower) or does this move stall again at the 10 day EMA?

That is what we are watching today, how the indices react at the 10 day EMA as that has stopped breaks higher on the last two tries. Third time coming up.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com - IH Alerts
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Today's Trade

Upside Play: AMSC (American Superconductor--$4.85; -0.09; optionable): Electronics
EARNINGS: 11/04/2015
STATUS: Trend reversal. Remember HLF when it started off its lows? No one liked it but the move every since has been stellar. AMSC is un-liked, forgotten, low volume. Yet, its pattern is setting up for a bounce, one we can use to make money. We are not looking for a wedding, just using AMSC until we are done with it. Two weeks back AMSC started up off a lower low as MACD put in a higher low. Momentum was swinging and AMSC rallied, gapping through the 50 day MA's last Monday. Spent the balance of the week testing in the market up and down, showing a pair of doji Thursday and Friday to end the week. When a stock is forgotten you can make great money. We want to play AMSC's break higher off of this test for an initial run up to the 200 day SMA.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/i hmedia/f/plays/amsc/amsc.mp4
Volume: 37.918K Avg Volume: 88.089K
BUY POINT: $5.04 Volume=125K Target=$6.65 Stop=$4.51
POSITION: AMSC DEC 18 2015 5.00 C - (56 delta) and/or Stock

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Today's Trade #2:

Upside Play: PCLN (Priceline.com--$1245.25; +4.88; optionable)
After Hours: $1245.50
EARNINGS: 11/02/2015
STATUS: After coming off the 200 day SMA test two weeks back, PCLN is finding support at the 50 day SMA, touching and holding it three times last week. Friday PCLN gapped lower then reversed to a gain on rising, average volume, working well in a weak market. We are watching for a new strong upside break as our signal to enter a new trade to the upside. One of those leaders that is building a pattern to rally during the market turmoil. As this would be the bottom we are looking for a more sustained run. A move to the initial target lands a 60%ish gain on the call optiosn.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/i hmedia/f/plays/pcln/pcln.mp4
Volume: 607.962K Avg Volume: 625.203K
BUY POINT: $1249.21 Volume=875K Target=$1339.91 Stop=$1229.11
POSITION: PCLN NOV 20 2015 1250.00C - (52 delta)

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