Monday, September 30, 2019

Weekender 9/29

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Weekend Newsletter for
September 29, 2019

Table Of Contents




Jon Johnson

Excerpted from Thursday's paid content of "Investment House Daily" by Jon Johnson.

Stocks Set To Rebound, Achieve Mixed Success

  • Stocks set to rebound, but fade as growth stocks lead the downside.
  • The data are a bit disappointing regarding the United States' gross domestic product (GDP), but solid regarding pending homes.
  • China and the United States continue to trade barbs regarding trade.
  • Large caps are low energy.
  • Bonds show the 2 year/10 year spread is back to flat and ready to invert again.
  • Repurchase agreements remain the biggest story not told.
  • The path of least resistance does not appear upward, but could the Fed be in the market yet again?
  • Someday, a trend will come.

Market Summary (continued from above)

After the European markets closed, the news seemed to indicate that China was buying more U.S. agricultural goods. Pending home sales jumped 1.6% versus the 1% that was expected. This was a gain of 2.48% year-over-year and the biggest yearly increase since April 2016.

In the face of the impeachment debate, the American people found out that the whistleblower witnessed none of that which he complained about. Everything was hearsay that should be investigated, but won’t be. Stocks rallied into the last hour.

Then, word broke that the Trump administration likely will not extend the waivers to sell to Huawei. Furthermore, China said the United States is spreading anti-Chinese sentiment in places such as Hong Kong. Well, I guess both sides have figured out that they can never have too much goodwill ahead of the October talks.

S&P500 and NASDAQ: The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 look weaker, particularly the NASDAQ, as both sport upward pointing wedges that started in early 2019. Both also tested higher over the past three weeks and failed three times, if you count a half-hearted effort on Tuesday. Both have cracked the bottom of the wedge. As a refresher, stocks tend to break in the opposite direction of the point of the wedge.

NOTE: The figures and information above are from the 9/26 report.

Watch Market Overview Video

NOTE: The video is from the 9/25 report.

Here is one completed trade from Investment House Daily, offering insights into our trading strategy and the target that we have hit this week:

Targets Hit This Week:

Pinterest Inc. (NYSE:PINS): Many of the initial public offering (IPO) darlings from the summer are getting scorned now. However, Pinterest Inc. (PINS) is a stock that made us great upside gains in late July to August. Then, it peaked and failed a test of near support. It quickly dropped down to and even through the 50-day moving average (MA) by early September and then rebounded to test that break. That is a bear flag, and we love to play that action if the stock starts back downwards. We put the play on the report on 9/13, started to watch the action and let the test complete. Sometimes, it takes a bit of time before this kind of stock finally gives up and PINS took its time. It then decided to try one more test of the 50-day MA, showing a doji as it tested that level on the prior Friday. From there, it broke lower. On Monday, PINS hit our entry and we bought October $29.00 put options for $2.00. However, the stock dropped hard both over the course of that day and on Tuesday. After the stock fell to a lower low, it paused on Wednesday and Thursday, edging upside to test the break of that low. However, that move failed. On Friday, PINS dropped to the July low, which had been our initial target. We then sold half the options for $3.50 and banked a nice 75% gain. We are now watching to see if PINS will test the May low at $23.80. If it does, that will put our remaining options at well over a 100% gain.

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2) Pick of the Week

NASDAQ:SBUX (Starbucks--$90.07; -1.49; optionable)

EARNINGS: 10/24/2019

STATUS: SBUX gapped to a higher high in late July, but it immediately sold back and then fell into a 6 week malaise. Good earnings, but then nothing. Two weeks back it broke the 50 day MA on big volume. It has wandered laterally below the 50 day EMA for the past two weeks. Looking for a break lower to move in to the downside position. A move to the target gains 90% on the October puts, 50%ish on the November options.

VOLUME: 11.242M Avg Volume: 6.792M

BUY POINT: $89.98 Volume=8M Target=$85.65 Stop=$91.32

POSITION: SBUX OCT 20 2019 90.00P - (-47 delta) or NOV 15 2019 90.00P - (-46 delta)




-- by the MarketFN STG Team


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Here is a completed trade from the Success Trading Group, offering insights into our trading strategy and the targets that we have hit this week:

NYSE:SNAP (Snap Inc.)

Our Success Trading Group members scored another winning trade when we closed out a position in Snap Inc. (NYSE: SNAP). We are watching several other stocks and are looking forward to trading next week.

Our Success Trading Group closed seven years with zero losses on our Main Trade Table. In fact, we closed 100% winning trades for the calendar years 2016, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009. We still have one open position from 2017 (all others were winners) and one trade that we opened in 2014 but was closed as a losing trade.

All of these trades are posted on our Main Trade Table for your review during your free membership trial period.

For Success Trading Group samples, click here!

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Coherus Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ:CHRS) -- Coherus Biosciences Inc. is currently trading at $20.86. The November 16 $20.00 Calls (CHRS20191116C00020000) are trading at $2.80. That provides a return of about 14% if CHRS is above $20.00 by the expiration.

Learn more about our Covered Call Tables

The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.

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