Market Summary (continued)
Futures were lower Friday even before the jobs report, and when a solid enough report was released, futures . . . fell farther with DJ30 tickling -100 and NASDAQ -60+ points.
Or perhaps it was Elon Musk slurping whiskey, smoking weed, and playing with a samurai sword on a Joe Rogan podcast that kept investor moods lower Friday. Thursday night Musk enjoyed himself and got visibly stoned, no doubt to the delight of the true believers. Apparently, however, the true believers don't own the stock because TSLA was bombed, down 28+ points at the low. Earlier in the week and then pre-market I speculated that we might actually make some money on the TSLA downside play even after the 'going private' tweet appeared to put the kibosh on the play. The beauty of that was it took so much value out of the put options we just left it on. A long strange trip it has been, from 'funding secured' to 'funding not secured' to whiskey swilling and pot smoking absurdity. We sold our options at a stock price near 255 this morning, just a few points off the low and a 60% gain. Thanks Elon!
Stocks opened lower but immediately managed a rebound into midday. Not bad. Then it all fell apart with a selloff into early afternoon. Not major losses at all, and very much in keeping with the pullback by the techs off the recent runs higher. Indeed, we were somewhat relieved the market did not try to rally given it was Friday and we did not really want to open a lot of new positions heading into the weekend.
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Even with the financial stations talking about a down market, we banked some great gain yet again.
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.)
Picked up this truck stock on 8/29 as it broke higher from a cup with stock at $153.42 and October $155.00 call options for $5.Â After a quick test, ODFL got it in gear and rallied to our target.Â Friday ODFL started higher after a big move and we sold some stock for $168.20 (9.6%) and some options for $14.70, a 190+% gain.
UIS (Unisys Corporation)
Software is hot and we picked up UIS for another play on 8/20 at $16.44 and some January $16.00 strike calls for $2.00.Â UIS gapped upside the next session and continued higher into last Tuesday, hitting our target.Â We sold some stock for $19.20 (16+%) and half the options for $3.95, a 97% gain.
AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)
Picked up this position on 8/23 with some November $1905.00 strike calls for $112.40.Â Worked slowly higher up the 10 day EMA then kicked it into gear 8/29.Â Rallied into Tuesday and saw it start to fade off the high. After this kind of move we sold the rest of our options for $195.00, banking over 70%.
SFIX (Stitch Fix, Inc.)
We bought into SFIX on 8/9 with stock at $31.17 and some September $30.00 strike calls for $3.60.Â Hit the initial target 8/22 and we banked some gain.Â Let the remaining half work and SFIX surged into Wednesday and then started to back off.Â We sold another half for $41.51 (33%) and options for $11.10 (208%).
TSLA (Tesla, Inc.)
Picked this one up 7/30 with some September put options for $26.90.Â It worked, for two sessions.Â Then the 'funding secured' tweet and the stock gapped higher. That was good because it lost so much value we thought we would hang on and see if this tweet was BS.Â It was, but it finally took a whiskey swilling, pot smoking, samurai sword wielding podcast Thursday to break it. Friday TSLA gapped lower, hit the target and more, and we sold our puts for $43.00, a 59% gain.Â Then TSLA released a statement saying it was having its greatest quarter ever.Â Serendipity.
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Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays:
1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength).
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Here's a post-split play and our current analysis.
STATUS: Pretty straightforward. AAPL finally broke out of the doldrums to start August. We have played the moves higher. Last week AAPL hit a new high, but after two weeks upside it needed a breather. Wednesday to Friday it took the breather, fading to near the 10 day EMA, showing a hammer doji Friday. If AAPL is ready to go higher again from here, we want to move in as it makes that break. This is its third touch of the 10 day EMA after the breakout, and historically stocks have 4 to 5 such moves before needing a deeper test. If it wants to test deeper to the 20 day EMA (217.87) and sit on the August mid-month peak before rebounding, that works as well; we will simply adjust the entry point. A move to the target from the Friday close lands a 75%ish gain on the call options.
Volume: 37.62M Avg Volume: 28.253M
BUY POINT: $223.21 Volume=40M Target=$238.00 Stop=$218.32
POSITION: AAPL NOV 16 2018 225.00 C - (46 DELTA)
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IMMU (Immunomedics--$24.78; 0.00; optionable): Biotch
STATUS: We like playing IMMU as one of the 'smaller' biotechs, one that is now moving more into the midrange. That works. IMMU rallied the last part of August, clearing the June and July highs. It tested that move last week, coming back to the 50 day SMA and 38% Fibonacci retracement of that last rally. The Friday doji at the 38% retracement is a good signal to enter, and thus as IMMU bounces up off this test we plan to do just that.
Volume: 1.002M Avg Volume: 1.561M
BUY POINT: $25.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$29.97 Stop=$23.44
POSITION: IMMU NOV 16 2018 25.00 C - (51 delta) &/or Stock
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--by the MarketFN STG Team
AXP (American Express Co.)
Our Success Trading Group will be watching closely for entry points next week on some of our favorite stocks such as American Express Co. (Ticker: AXP) and Kellogg Company (Ticker: K).
Our Success Trading Group closed
7 years with 0 losses on our Main Trade Table. In fact, we closed 100% winning trades for the calendar years 2016, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009 (we still have 1 open position from 2017 (all others were winners) and 1 trade that we opened in 2014 was closed as a losing trade). All of these trades are posted on our Main Trade Table for your review during your free membership trial period.
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RGR - Sturm Ruger & Co. Inc. is currently trading at $67.75. The October $67.50 Calls (RGR20181020C00067500) are trading at $2.80. That provides a return of about 4% if RGR is above $67.50 on expiration Friday in October.
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| The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.|
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