Sunday, September 16, 2018

Trump Makes His 'Usual' Friday Trade Comments (Weekend Newsletter)

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Weekend Newsletter for
September 16, 2018

Table Of Contents







Jon Johnson
         > >From "The Daily" by Jon Johnson at

Friday once again the President had something to say.

- Trump makes his 'usual' Friday trade comments, market reacts like Pavlov's dogs.
- In the end it was just a day off Friday, similar to the day off Wednesday, in a continuation of the uptrend.
- Various big names help drive the action on the week, but the small and midcaps step up late week.
- SOX makes a bounce off support just as, of course, the final big names throw in the towel on chips. A little bit of history repeating.
- Retail sales miss but still trending nicely higher.
- Industrial production revised nicely higher with mining producing good jobs.
- Still plenty of negative vibes on the market, but the leaders remain as do the trends.

Market Summary (continued)
I said last weekend that it seemed every Friday the President would say something negative about trade ahead of the weekend causing a market drop, and perhaps we should play it. We should have.

Friday once again the President had something to say. Just before 12:00ET President Trump said he still wanted to implement the $200B in tariffs against China regardless of whether the two sides were talking or going to talk again about trade.

The stock market, after starting higher, testing, then rallying to midday, responded as usual, dumping 143 points on DJ30, 60 points on NASDAQ. After an hour of this weakness, stocks then recovered in the afternoon session, the large cap indices never made it back to their session highs, particularly NASDAQ. The small and midcaps did while SOX posted a nice recovery as well for its second 1+% gain.

VOLUME: NYSE +1%, NASDAQ -11%. All things considered, this is not bad price/volume action. The small caps, midcaps and large cap NYSE moved up, albeit in the latter cases very little, on rising, once again above average volume. NASDAQ sold back but on significantly lower trade than the prior 3 sessions of upside. Again, not bad price/volume action.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.1:1, NASDAQ 1.1:1. Pretty much tells the story . . . of boring trade.

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A week where the indices bounced off tests of near support yielded more opportunities to take gains on positions we picked up on the dips and breakouts.

AMD (Applied Micro Devices, Inc.)
Company Profile
This is our second live position on AMD, picked up on 9/4 as it broke higher from a 4-day lateral consolidation.  A quick break higher and AMD hit our initial target Tuesday.  We solid some stock for $30.13 (bought at $27.07) for a 11% gain, and some of the November $25.00 strike options for $6.50 (bought at $4.05) for a 60% gain. Of course, AMD continued higher.  That is okay as we want to let part of the position work.

HD (The Home Depot, Inc.)
Company Profile
A long time coming as we bought this position on 7/19, grabbing some September $200.00 strike calls for $7.20.  HD rallied then tested into August, forming an inverted head and shoulders through late month.  Finally HD broke higher again the past two weeks, hitting our initial target Wednesday.  The stock surged, started to fade, and we sold the options for $12.15, banking 68+% on the options. Whew.  Again, it took awhile, longer than we typically like to hold.

HON (Honeywell International Inc.)
Company Profile
We bought HON on 8/7 as it broke higher from a 20 day EMA test following a solid rally.  Then it . . . fell back to the 50 day EMA by mid-August.  It held, however, and so did we.  Then HON started a slow, steady rally up the 10 day EMA, the rally we wanted to play.  It took some time, but on Thursday 9/13 HON hit the initial target.  We sold some stock bought at $156.39 for $185.04, banking 18+%.  We sold some December $155.00 strike calls bought at $6.84 for $12.55, banking 80+%.  Still have half the position working for us.

SRPT (Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.)
Company Profile
May have acted prematurely on this one, but we took what was in hand based upon what the pattern showed.  Picked up some options on SRPT on 8/29 for $16.15 with the stock at $139.68.  SRPT showed promise but then stalled in early September, that is until Tuesday.  It started back upside and by Thursday it surged but then started to falter.  We decided what the heck and sold half the November $135.00 calls for $24.20, banking 50%.  We left half to work and SRPT worked higher Friday.  That works.

TREX (Trex Company, Inc.)
Company Profile
Bought into TREX 8/17 as it broke higher form a 2.5 week tight lateral consolidation.  Picked up the stock for $81.25 and some October $80.00 strike calls for $4.50.  TREX performed as steadily as we thought it would, climbing the 10 day EMA and never giving it up.  On 9/11, Tuesday, it hit our initial target.  We sold some stock for $88.72, banking 9%, sold some October calls for $9.5, banking 111%.  Left the rest to work, and TREX is still climbing the 10 day EMA.

TLRY (Tilray, Inc.)
Company Profile
Bought this stock on momentum on 9/11 as it continued its momentum off a test and new break higher.  Bought the stock for $92.43 and some December $95.00 strike calls for $12.40.  TLRY gapped higher the next session and hit the initial target.  We sold half the stock for a 15% gain.  We are letting the rest of the position run higher.

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AKAM (Akami Technologies--$75.80; -0.35; optionable): Internet
Company Profile
EARNINGS: 10/30/18 after the close
STATUS: Triangle. AKAM rallied to a new 17 year high in June, clearing the more recent high from 2015. After that high AKAM has consolidated that last run, forming a three month triangle. Kind of a forgotten sector, working on its pattern quietly. Nice break higher the prior Friday, gapping through the 50 day MA's. Tested that move the past week, showing a doji with tail Friday tapping the 50 day MA's and rebounding. Excellent setup, looking for a solid break higher on some good volume to enter.
Volume: 1.502M Avg Volume: 1.682M
BUY POINT: $76.96 Volume=2.2M Target=$86.64 Stop=$74.18
POSITION: AKAM NOV 16 2018 77.50 C - (47 delta) &/or Stock

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ARWR (Arrowhead Research--$18.91; +0.58; optionable): Biotech
Company Profile
EARNINGS: 11/6/18 after the close
STATUS: Made some good money on ARWR in prior rallies. Indeed, ARWR rallied into late July. It has since formed a 5 week lateral range along the 50 day MA, then gapped upside in early September on strong volume. That gap cleared the late July peak. Rallied higher into Tuesday then started to fade, coming back to the 10 day EMA Thursday and Friday, showing a nice tight doji. We are looking to move in as ARWR rallies up off this nice flag test of the breakout. Want to see a solid break higher and showing a return of solid volume to signal the buy.
Volume: 1.419M Avg Volume: 2.472M
BUY POINT: $19.62 Volume=3.2M Target=$23.05 Stop=$18.49
POSITION: ARWR NOV 16 2018 20.00 C - (57 delta) &/or Stock

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--by the MarketFN STG Team

OI (Owens-Illinois, Inc.)
Company Profile
Our Success Trading Group members scored another winning trade this week when we closed out a position in Owens-Illinois, Inc. (Ticker: OI). We are watching several stocks and are looking forward to trading next week.

Our Success Trading Group closed
7 years with 0 losses on our Main Trade Table. In fact, we closed 100% winning trades for the calendar years 2016, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009 (we still have 1 open position from 2017 (all others were winners) and 1 trade that we opened in 2014 was closed as a losing trade). All of these trades are posted on our Main Trade Table for your review during your free membership trial period.

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SM - SM Energy Company is currently trading at $31.49. The November $30.00 Calls (SM20181117C00030000) are trading at $3.30. That provides a return of about 7% if SM is above $30.00 on expiration Friday in November.
Company Profile

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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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